2007年10月2日星期二
2007年9月10日星期一
2007年9月8日星期六
In a New Video, Bin Laden Predicts U.S. Failure in Iraq
Saturday, September 8, 2007; Page A01
Ending a nearly three-year absence from public view, a dark-bearded Osama bin Laden surfaced yesterday in a new video in which he repeatedly taunted the Bush administration but made no overt threats of renewed terrorist attacks.
The al-Qaeda leader appeared visibly older and spoke in somber tones as he delivered a rambling, 25-minute monologue that included a lengthy tirade against Western capitalism sprinkled with references to recent news events and cultural and political figures.
 Gallery The Elusive Osama Bin Laden Osama bin Laden -- al Qaeda leader and alleged mastermind behind the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 -- has continued to wage his holy war from hiding, periodically appearing in video tapes calling upon Muslims to rise up against the United States. VIDEO | First Glimpse of New bin Laden Video (AP) The Search for OsamaWho's Blogging?Read what bloggers are saying about this article.  Most Blogged About Articles  |
Addressing his message to "the people of America," bin Laden predicted failure for U.S. forces in Iraq and warned against what he described as the continued oppression and humiliation of Muslims by the West.
"The blood of the Muslims will not be spilled with impunity," he said.
The tape was undergoing technical evaluation by U.S. intelligence analysts, but an initial review indicated it was authentic. "The analysis suggests that the voice on the tape is indeed that of Osama bin Laden," said a U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition that he not be identified by name.
If confirmed as genuine, the recording will represent the first video footage of the al-Qaeda leader since he appeared in an October 2004 tape during the run-up to the U.S. presidential elections.
Terrorism analysts said the video offered little new information but appeared intended to show that bin Laden is not only alive but vital and committed to continuing his campaign against the West nearly six years to the day after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The tape, which appears to have been professionally produced, is believed to have been made no earlier than mid-August, analysts said.
"He is saying, 'I am still here, and we are still engaged in the war against the United States -- and we will widen the circle of the war,' " said Husain Haqqani, an expert on Islamic terrorist groups and the director of the Center for International Relations at Boston University. "The overall message is one of trying to bolster the morale of the al-Qaeda faithful and at the same time thumbing his nose at the United States."
In Sydney, President Bush told reporters: "The tape is a reminder about the dangerous world in which we live. And it is a reminder that we must work together to protect . . . against these extremists who murder the innocent in order to achieve their political objectives."
"I found it interesting that on the tape Iraq was mentioned, which is a reminder that Iraq is a part of this war against extremists," Bush continued. "If al-Qaeda bothers to mention Iraq, it is because they want to achieve their objectives in Iraq, which is to drive us out and to develop a safe haven."
Bin Laden's lengthy speech is interspersed with references suggesting that the al-Qaeda leader closely follows events in the West. He refers to the recently elected leaders of Britain and France -- Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy -- saying they, like Bush, "talk about freedom and human rights with a disregard for the intellects of human beings." He even refers to global warming and the troubled credit and real estate markets in the United States.
The tape's most striking feature was bin Laden's physical appearance: The straggly, gray-streaked whiskers of his previous images had been replaced with a neatly trimmed beard of black or dark brown. While some analysts speculated that the beard was fake, others said it was likely that bin Laden had dyed his beard, as is customary for older men in some Muslim cultures.
In the rugged area along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where U.S. officials believe al-Qaeda is based and is regrouping, Muslim men use a locally made henna dye that leaves a dark red color, said John O. Brennan, an al-Qaeda expert and former acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center.
"In some respects he appears to be demonstrating his vanity," Brennan said.
In the video, bin Laden also had replaced his customary military camouflage jacket with a more traditional gold robe and white tunic. Against a plain backdrop, he reads his remarks from a script, occasionally gesturing with one hand to emphasize a point. He does not appear obviously ill, though some analysts said his face is visibly wizened compared with his appearance in earlier videos, and the dark circles beneath his eyes are more pronounced.
The tape surfaced less than 24 hours after the appearance of announcements on several Islamic Web sites of the imminent release of a new statement from the "Lion Sheik" bin Laden.
The video was obtained early yesterday by U.S. intelligence officials and was first made public on the Web site of the SITE Institute, a D.C.-based nonprofit group that studies terrorist organizations. The circumstances of its release were unusual: No copy of the video had appeared on Islamic Web sites as of yesterday, as has been the norm for past al-Qaeda videos. A spokesman for SITE declined to comment on how it obtained the most recent video.
A script in English and Arabic that accompanied the video gives the title of bin Laden's message as "The Solution" and links his remarks to the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. In the speech, bin Laden calls on Americans to "embrace Islam" as the true religion, and he contends that the attacks succeeded in damaging the U.S. economy and undermining the United States' reputation and global prestige.
"Despite America being the greatest economic power and possessing the most powerful and up-to-date military arsenal . . . 19 young men were able, by the grace of Allah, the Most High, to change the direction of its compass," he says in the speech, referring to the 19 hijackers who carried out the Sept. 11 attacks.
He chides not only Bush -- a leader who he says "harvests nothing but failure" -- but also the Democratic leadership of Congress. "Why have the Democrats failed to stop this war, despite them being the majority?" he asks, according to the translation provided by the SITE group. Later, answering his own question, he argues that the failure of Americans to stop the Iraq war was attributable to the political dominance of large corporations that "benefit from this continuation."
In a speech yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden did not comment directly on the tape. But he said al-Qaeda leaders, working from bases inside Pakistan, continue to plot against the United States.
"Al-Qaeda is focusing on targets that would produce mass casualties, dramatic destruction, and significant economic aftershocks," Hayden said. "Al-Qaeda's success with planting operatives in this country is less certain."
Staff writers Dafna Linzer in New York and Michael A. Fletcher in Sydney contributed to this report.
2007年8月21日星期二
俄惟一航母重新“起航”
俄罗斯拥有的惟一现役航母———“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号。
俄罗斯国家电视台19日报道，俄罗斯惟一一艘航母———“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号已经开始起降战斗机，这表明它已经结束了两年的休整期，恢复了日常执勤状态。有分析认为，此举是俄罗斯复兴海军重要事件。
其他航母全部退役或出售
“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号航母隶属于北方舰队，从上世纪80年代开始服役。排水量为5.5万吨，长302米，额定船员1960人，可搭载36架飞机和16架 直升机，于1993年起被编入战斗序列。“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号航母是前苏联海军发展的第三代航空母舰，也是俄罗斯海军现役舰艇中吨位最大的舰只。
“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号是俄罗斯目前仅存的一艘航母，其他前苏联时期建造的航母要么已经退役，要么被卖到其他国家。
“经历两年休整后，飞机正在从‘库兹涅佐夫元帅’号航母甲板上起飞和着陆，”俄罗斯电视一台报道说，“对于飞行员和工作人员来说，再现这一时刻似乎太久了。”
技术资金问题让航母瘫痪？
2005年9月，一架苏－33战机在“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号降落时，由于航母上的制动索突然断裂，致使战机冲出甲板并坠入海中，幸好当时落水的飞行员安全获救，没有造成人员伤亡。2006年4月，“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号在执行完一次出海航行任务后，便开始接受维修。
俄媒体曾报道说，因为技术故障和资金匮乏，“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号曾长时间停留在港口，或者接受维修。
俄罗斯海军总司令弗拉基米尔·马索林表示，为了避免再次出现意外情况，维修后的“库兹涅佐夫元帅”号已配备经过特殊培训的飞行员。他还说，俄罗斯未来还计划建造另一艘航母。
经济发展助推俄重振军力
分析人士认为，随着俄罗斯经济迅速发展，该国国防预算得到政府财政有力支持，俄罗斯海军正寻求重振往日雄风。惟一航母重新启用，为该国海军发展重要事 件。俄总统普京曾在多个场合公开表示，要重新振兴俄罗斯海军，马索林最近也曾表示，俄罗斯应在地中海设立常驻海军。目前，美国拥有12艘航母，位居世界第 一。
除了海军，几天前俄还宣布重新启动停止多年的远程战略轰炸机巡航，但美国则讽刺这些飞机“太老旧”。
台湾客机爆炸：初步调查事故原因是燃料泄漏
日本当地时间昨日上午10时34分（北京时间9时34分），中国台湾“中华航空公司”的一架波音 737-800型客机在日本冲绳那霸机场着陆后不久发生爆炸起火，机身折为三段。所幸机上157名乘客和8名机组人员全部脱险、无人伤亡。初步调查显示事 故原因是燃料泄漏，日本警方已确认与恐怖袭击无关。
意外
机未停稳突然起火 两位机师跳窗逃生
这架航班号为CI120的华航班机于20日上午7时15分从台北出发，计划9时30分抵达冲绳那霸机场。
据了解，班机在9时27分正常、安全降落后，由塔台引导滑行进入41号停机坪；9时31分，飞机尚未停稳，地勤人员使用飞机前起落架外的耳 机插孔与正副驾驶员取得联系，告知飞机发生燃油泄漏并引致左侧发动机起火！飞行员立即广播通知后舱机组：紧急疏散!飞行员随即执行关闭发动机的必要程序。
机组人员随即打开紧急逃生舱门，启动充气逃生梯，机上旅客迅速在90秒内逃离客机。就在最后一名乘务员逃生后不到5秒，身后的飞机突然爆 炸，紧接着起火燃烧，一时间，烈焰遮天。此时还未离开的正副机师已无法从舱门逃生，只能将驾驶舱玻璃打破，直接从近两层楼高的驾驶舱跳下，飞机的中央油箱 也几乎在同一时间爆炸，巨大气浪把机师的帽子都吹跑了，还好，两人都未受伤。
事故发生后，那霸市消防部门动用了所有消防车前往机场灭火。大火在11时37分被扑灭，但客机已被烧毁，机体断裂成三截。·本报综合新华社消息·
上图：飞起起火爆炸，浓烟蔽日 新华社发
出击
场面如同灾难大片 劫后余生心有余悸
对于该机的全部乘客和机组人员来说，此次意外是永生难忘的可怕经历。虽然有惊无险，但成功逃生后在机场候机楼内，眼睁睁地看着刚刚还在乘坐的客机瞬间化成一堆残骸———死里逃生的滋味也并不好受。
一名日本乘客说：“我先听到很大的爆炸声，四声很大的声响。”另一名日本乘客说：“我听到爆炸的声音，然后看到火焰，乘客还在疏散时，火吞噬整个机身，很惊险。”
一名当时正搭出租车经过那霸机场旁边的目击者接受采访时说：“我看到有几名乘客从那架飞机逃生梯疏散，大约过了1分钟，就听到爆炸声。”日本国土交通省一名官员也证实：“飞机进入停机坪后约4分钟,发动机就爆炸起火了。”
根据机上日籍旅客的说法,在飞机降落后,机舱内并没有异常的现象,不过随后感觉舱内比较热,好像有热风吹进来,这时旅客才警觉到可能有问题。
搭乘这架班机的台湾旅客戴先生也表示，快到那霸时，他闻到飞机上有烟臭味，机长在降落前15分钟就感觉有问题，还在空中时就以广播告知乘客：“发生了一点状况，希望旅客冷静，我们也快到机场了。”
据乘坐该机的一另位台湾客人透露，飞机着陆后乘客正在做离机准备时发生起火。机务人员曾一度向乘客解释是飞机轮胎着火，没有大碍，要大家保 持冷静。后来，火势渐大，机务人员才打开紧急通道，疏导乘客利用充气滑梯离开。此时，起火后的浓烟已进入机舱，乘客来不及携带手提行李匆忙逃难。在大部分 乘客跑至距离飞机200米外的休息室门前、最后离机的乘客距离飞机仅100米时，燃烧中的飞机发生爆炸。
万幸
百余乘客无人遇难 确定不是恐怖袭击
据报道，乘坐该客机的157名乘客中，大部分为中国台湾到冲绳旅游的游客，另有8名中国大陆乘客，此外还有23名日本人和十几名美国人，全 部安全撤离。事故发生后，日本乘客全部离开，大部分台湾乘客则忙于和华航交涉损失行李的索赔问题。华航现场的有关人员表示，目前没有现金对乘客进行赔偿， 暂时只能发给每人1万日元应急。
发生意外后，华航已经表示其所有起降安排都按照安全程序，其维修和飞行都按照正常计划，初步排除意外是恐怖袭击的可能。
对于飞机爆炸起火的原因，华航表现得相当低调，仅表示飞机发生了爆炸，至于原因如何，华航表示要等到专业鉴定报告出炉才能对外说明。
上图：飞机断成三截 新华社发
上图：乘客紧急逃生 新华社发
善后措施
同类客机停飞 华航股票大跌 保险费要上涨
华航客机在日本那霸机场爆炸起火，引起对同类型飞机安全的关注。台湾“民航局”成立“空难灾害应变小组”，并已下令岛内同型号飞机停飞接受特别检查。
台“交通部民用航空局长”张国政表示，岛内所有波音737－800型客机将全部停飞特检，此外，台“民航局飞安委员会”将会同日本有关方面调查。
当天台湾股市中的华航股票也受到了影响。华航股票早盘以13．5元新台币开出，随着台股反弹大涨，一度上攻至13．55元，但受飞机爆炸起火的消息影响，股价应声下挫，一路下滑至12．5元，才在大单敲进下止跌回升。
另据报道，华航近三年来“飞安”情况大为改善，保险费率也更为“经济”，但此次事故或将带来重大影响。华航今年保费谈判提前于7月完成，保 费由原来约1800万美元降到1300万美元左右，因此，尚不至于影响今年度保险费用，但业内人士指出，“明年度的费用可能受到影响，会略为提高”，但整 体上影响程度，还待明年与其他共保公司评估后才知道。业内人士估计明年续约时保费恐将提高两到三成。
上图：大火过后，一片狼藉 新华社发
事故原因
事故很罕见 原因成谜团
此次发生意外的华航波音737－800于2002年7月引进，机龄仅5年。华航737－800客机过去也曾有飞行安全的不良记录，分别在2002年3月和5月高雄机场发生擦撞以及仪表板故障。
刹车过热恰遇漏油着火？
事后日本国土交通省在第一时间召开了记者会，公布初步调查结果。国土交通省表示，当时地勤人员看到引擎漏油,立即告知机长，机长关闭引擎后，飞机随之起火爆炸。
飞机降落且停妥后发生爆炸事件，是罕见特例。有关航空专家则指出，从事故现场来看，飞机起火后只有地面人员拿着灭火器灭火，机场方面显然事 前不知情。飞机若空中出现警情，仪表应该有显示；即使机长未发觉，塔台也应该看得到，航管人员不可能让起火的飞机滑行到停机坪。由此可以确定飞机降落前未 出现发动机故障或起火等异常状况。
专家表示，从飞机在10分钟内就被烧成三截的情况来看，应有漏油才会助长火势快速蔓延。飞机下降后，滑行必须常用刹车，由于仪表不会显示刹车过热状况，事故原因极可能是因刹车过热又刚好碰到油箱漏油，随即出现爆裂。这也就是地面机务人员向机师报告飞机起火的状况。
油箱早有问题引发事故？
另有日本媒体指出，2002年8月30日，美国联邦航空局曾通令各航空公司对所有旗下波音客机进行检查，改善命令名单也包括这次出事的 737─800型飞机。但专家说，当年发出的技术检修令，是中油箱及机尾油箱有问题，昨天华航737─800型客机是机翼附近的油箱出问题，与当时要求检 修的情形不同，不宜相提并论。
链接：华航安全成问题
近年来，台湾“华航”曾发生多起飞行事故和空难。
1993年，香港启德机场“华航”飞机冲出跑道滑入海湾，造成23人受伤；
1994年，“华航”B1816班机在日本名古屋坠机，造成252人死亡，11人受伤；
1998年，“华航”飞机在桃园机场上空爆炸坠毁，飞机上和陆地民宅一共202人死亡；
1999年，“华航”一架MD11型班机因为遭到台风，在香港新机场翻覆，造成3死31伤；
2003年，“华航”班机又在马公外海坠毁，机上225名乘客，无人生还。
